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[251] 11 augustus 2021: Patterns and predictors of reoffending among child sexual offenders: A rapid evidence assessment

Inleiding en context

Goede morgen allemaal, het is vandaag woensdag 11 augustus 2021. Ik keek gisteren naar de ontvangst van onze succesvolle olympiërs door Mark Rutte. Mooi allemaal, bij de naam Kiran Badloe dacht ik aan dit prachtige nummer van mijn favoriete band:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_48Qz_Oj6g OK, nu naar de dag van vandaag met alweer een nieuwe ´kennisparel´ in jullie mailbox. Dit keer een systematisch overzicht over recidivepatronen onder (volwassen en jeugdige) zedendelinquenten met minderjarigen als slachtoffer. Er is een flinke hoeveelheid literatuur die recidive onder zedendelinquenten beschrijft, waaronder een aantal systematische reviews en meta-analyses. Bijgesloten overzicht geeft inzicht rond de meest recente kennis op dit terrein. Dit weerspiegelt de academische, klinische en beleidsinteresse in hoe vaak, en onder welke omstandigheden minderjarige en volwassen zedendelinquenten doorgaan met het plegen van verdere seksuele misdrijven gericht tegen minderjarigen na contact met de strafrechtelijk systeem. Tevens wordt een oordeel gegeven over de effectiviteit van behandeling en interventiemaatregelen om recidive onder zedendelinquenten tegen te gaan. Graag verwijs ik nog naar deze eerder verzonden ´kennisparel´ die deels over hetzelfde onderwerp gaat:  https://prohic.nl/2021/02/23/172-23-februari-2021-tackling-child-sexual-abuse-strategy-2021/

Bron

Dowling, Christopher, Hayley Boxall, Kamarah Pooley, Cameron Long & Christie Franks (August 2021). Patterns and predictors of reoffending among child sexual offenders: A rapid evidence assessment. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, 19 pp. https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi632

Samenvatting

A rapid evidence assessment was conducted to provide an updated review of reoffending research on child sexual offenders from January 2010 to March 2020. Thirty-three studies examining 55 independent samples of adult and juvenile child sexual offenders were reviewed. A rapid evidence assessment was conducted to address the following questions:

  • What proportion of child sexual offenders have a prior history of general and sexual offending?
  • How prevalent is general and sexual reoffending among child sexual offenders?
  • What is the nature of general and sexual reoffending among child sexual offenders?
  • What factors are associated with an increased risk of general and sexual reoffending among child sexual offenders?
  • Are there any differences between juvenile and adult sex offenders in their likelihood of reoffending and reoffending risk profile?

Across most studies, rates of sexual reoffending were 15 percent or less, and rates of general reoffending were between 20 and 54 percent. The evidence suggests that the cumulative likelihood of both general and sexual reoffending increases until about two to four years after contact with the criminal justice system, then stabilises. Escalation from non-contact to contact sexual offending is not common. Finally, the evidence suggests that juveniles are more likely to reoffend sexually and generally than adults.

A review of the most recent evidence on child sexual offenders suggests that the cumulative likelihood of both general and sexual reoffending increases in the first few years after the index offence, then stabilises. However, sexual reoffending among child sexual offenders is rare compared with general reoffending. Across most studies, rates of sexual reoffending were 15 percent or less, and rates of general reoffending were between 20 and 54 percent. Additionally, many more child sexual offenders have histories of general than sexual offending. This is consistent with research showing that child sexual offences are often committed as part of broader patterns of offending, and are usually underpinned by more general antisocial inclinations as well as deviant sexual inclinations. There is also little evidence of escalation in reoffending—neither adult nor juvenile offenders typically escalate from non-contact to contact child sexual offences.

A number of high-level implications for policy and practice can be drawn from these conclusions. Findings highlight the importance of concentrating responses to child sexual offending in the first few years after criminal justice system contact, when re-exposure to the original stressors or facilitators underpinning the behaviour, or exposure to new stressors resulting from criminal justice system contact, are most likely. Critically, findings also reinforce the utility of interventions addressing criminal and antisocial behaviour broadly, rather than just sexual offending specifically, for child sexual offenders. The low rates of sexual reoffending mean that targeted treatment, sentencing and post-sentence measures which use empirically supported risk factors to identify and prioritise high-risk offenders are likely to be more effective and cost-efficient than indiscriminately intensive responses.

Building on this, the current review also highlights the characteristics of those who are more likely to sexually reoffend. Those who commit contact sexual offences, who breach their conditional release orders, and who have extra-familial victims are more likely to reoffend generally and sexually. Extra-familial offenders are also more likely to have histories of non-sexual offending. These factors could indicate a greater willingness to overcome legal and practical obstacles in order to offend, including sexually, and may reflect stronger sexual deviance and/or antisociality. Indigenous status and low SES were predictive of reoffending in some studies, although these risk factors may be less important for juvenile offenders and those with histories of general offending.

Consistent with prior research juvenile offenders were more likely to reoffend sexually and generally than adult offenders, although they were less likely to have histories of sexual and general offending, probably because of their age. These findings add to the now considerable body of evidence for adolescence as a high-risk period for various forms of criminal and antisocial behaviour, including sexual offending. Among adult offenders, youth generally predicted sexual reoffending as well, although there may be greater variation in risk across adulthood than many existing studies reveal. Critically, while risk factors for reoffending were largely consistent across juvenile and adult offenders, this review does not examine psychological or clinical risk factors, which may differ starkly between adult and juvenile offenders.

Afsluitend

Gezien de aanzienlijke schade die bij slachtoffers wordt veroorzaakt door seksuele misdrijven tegen kinderen is er gelukkig veel academische, klinische en beleidsmatig kennis voorhanden over de mate waarin daders recidiveren na detectie en veroordeling. De bevindingen uit bijgesloten review ondersteunen het inmiddels omvangrijke onderzoek dat aantoont dat voor velen seksuele agressie tegen kinderen deel uit maakt van een breder patroon van crimineel gedrag. Kenmerken zijn algemene impulsieve en agressieve neigingen en een gebrek aan empathie – kenmerken die ook de betrokkenheid verklaren bij niet-seksuele delicten. Deze bevindingen benadrukken het belang van het implementeren van een intensievere behandeling en monitoring van reacties in de eerste jaren na contact met het strafrechtelijk systeem. Deze interventies richten zich op de daders die het meeste risico´s lopen op recidive. Ze ondersteunen ook het nut van interventies die crimineel en antisociaal gedrag in het algemeen aanpakken, in plaats van specifieke gerichtheid op seksueel geweld tegen minderjarigen.