Categorieën
Archief Kennisparels

[260] 31 augustus 2021: The influence of changing reward of electronic consumer goods on burglary and theft offences in Western market-based countries in the years prior to and during the crime drop

Inleiding en context

Goede morgen allemaal, het is vandaag dinsdag 31 augustus, alweer de laatste dag van de maand. Nog vier maanden en het jaar 2021 is ook weer voorbij. Vandaag een ´kennisparel´ over één van mijn favoriete onderwerpen: woninginbraak en de verklaringen waarom de laatste jaren het niveau daarvan zo significant is gedaald. Niet alleen in Nederland maar ook in veel andere geïndustrialiseerde landen. En dat is uiteraard heel goed nieuws, vooral voor de slachtoffers van een geslaagde woninginbraak. Eerder verstuurde ik eind december vorig jaar al een ´kennisparel´ over de stand-van-zaken van woninginbraak in Nederland: https://prohic.nl/2020/12/18/139-18-december-2020-woninginbraak-in-nederland-stand-van-zaken-in-2020/ Daaruit blijkt dat afhankelijk van de achterliggende analyse van de oorzaken er vele interventies kansrijk zijn, vooral in combinatie met elkaar. Zoals de inzet van toezicht in woningcomplexen en in de publieke ruimten. Verhogen van het verlichtingsniveau in (semi-)publieke ruimten. Toepassing van cameratoezicht op specifieke locaties en hotspots. Toepassing van het Keurmerk Veilig Wonen. Ophogen van het algemene beveiligingsniveau en herinrichten van woonwijken. Tijdens de bouw al installeren van standaardbeveiligingsmaatregelen. Gefocuste surveillance op ‘hot spots’ en van veelplegers met het doel de pakkans te vergroten. Ook het voorkomen van herhaald slachtofferschap van woninginbraak werpt vruchten af.

Ten slotte stuurde ik deze ´kennisparel´ https://prohic.nl/2021/06/15/227-15-juni-2021-what-works-to-prevent-domestic-burglaries/ over wat de wetenschap ons zegt over effectieve maatregelen om woninginbraak te voorkomen. Allemaal mooie evidentie op basis waarvan blijkt dat woninginbraken zijn te voorkomen. De bijgesloten ´kennisparel´ van vandaag is een bijzondere. Op overtuigende wijze wordt aangetoond dat fluctuaties in de prijzen van luxe consumptiegoederen in sterke mate, in combinatie met preventieve maatregelen, de fluctuaties verklaren in het niveau van woninginbraak. Eerder noemde ik dit gegeven het zogenaamde ´Mediamarkt effect´. Luxe consumptiegoederen worden steeds goedkoper waardoor het nauwelijks nog loont om ze op de helingmarkt af te zetten. Dus waarom zou je nog gestolen goederen kopen wanneer de prijzen zo laag zijn? En ´zonder helers geen stelers´, dus minder woninginbraken. Wat zegt de bijgesloten ´kennisparel´ hierover? 

Bron

Quin, Liam & Joseph Clare (August 2021). The influence of changing reward of electronic consumer goods on burglary and theft offences in Western market-based countries in the years prior to and during the crime drop. Crime Science, no. 18, pp. 1-14.

https://crimesciencejournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40163-021-00153-w

Samenvatting

It is widely recognised that burglary and theft offence trends have broadly moved in parallel in ‘Western’ market-based countries since the 1950s. Most researchers have focussed on the trend from the early 1990s onwards, when burglary and theft offence rates plummeted. One major proposed explanation for this trend, relates to improved security. This paper draws on the longitudinal variations in reward of electronic consumer goods to propose a complementary account. This argument is supported by criminological theory, empirical evidence, and historical trends of specific property crime offences. The paper concludes by explaining that reward and security operate in partnership to influence the opportunity for crime, which provides an optimal account for burglary and theft offence trends over the last 40 years.

As stated in the introduction, it is not the intention of this paper to posit that the changing reward of electronic consumer goods is the only factor causing the burglary and theft offence trends prior to and during the crime drop. Instead, it is argued that the changing reward is a contributing factor to the phenomenon, along with changes in effort and risk (i.e., security and routine activities) over time. This is consistent, and indeed what would be expected, according to the crime opportunity perspective and the situational crime prevention literature. Building on the strong case presented by Farrell et al. (2014) for the role of increased security on the crime drop, we suggest that the increased reward of electronic consumer goods during the years that burglary and theft offence rates were increasing, and reduced reward during the crime drop, complements these findings to suggest a more rounded crime opportunity explanation. Indeed, the changing reward hypothesis provides a more coherent explanation for why burglary and theft offences increased between the 1950s and early 1990s. At the very least, the evidence presented here suggests that further investigation of the role of the changing reward of electronic consumer goods on burglary and theft offences for the years prior to and during the crime drop is warranted.

To further test the role of changing reward on burglary and theft offence rates over time, future research should investigate this association in non-Western countries where property crime rates are still high. Such cross-national research could also provide important insights into the causes of the crime drop in ‘Western’ countries, by establishing the similarities and differences between them. For example, in some non-Western countries it is likely there is less even distribution of security across households and a greater use of cash, as well as differing demand dynamics in stolen goods markets. Additionally, future research should test the association between changing prices of goods and theft rates of goods for years prior to and during the crime drop. Finally, as with previous literature examining these issues, the present paper was limited in the data available to compare trends of specific property crimes, future research should test this hypothesis with a more extensive and varied range of crime data and sources.

This paper demonstrates the clear relevance of reward to understanding burglary and theft offence trends. This research is strongly supported by relevant criminological theory, has demonstrated support from previous published work, and presents data from the UK, US, and Australia in a convincing way. Importantly, risk and effort (in terms of security) can work effectively in partnership with reward as compatible leavers to pull in preventing crime, meaning that this argument supports and extends the already important work that emphasises security in understanding why crime has declined.

Afsluitend

Opnieuw een mooie verklaring waarom woninginbraak zo´n significante daling laat zien. Onderstaande dia´s geven een beeld van de ontwikkeling in woninginbraak in Nederland en een aantal conclusies en verklaringen waarom dat zo is. Alweer positief nieuws om de maand augustus mee af te sluiten. Op naar september!