21 March 2018
Authors: Peter Versteegh and René Hesseling
Peter Versteegh and René Hessling are crime analysts at the police, Unit The Hague.
The authors are available for questions and discussion by e-mail: peter.versteegh@politie.nl and rene.hesseling@politie.nl
Translated by Bianca Kreuning and Paul van Soomeren
21 March 2018, Article in Secondant – Platform for social safetySecondant: Het wordt veiliger in Nederland, maar niet overal (ccv-secondant.nl) (Dutch)
Crime has fallen significantly in the Netherlands.For example, the number of reports of domestic burglary in the past year was 60 per cent less than in 1994. But is the decrease equally strong everywhere or is the risk of domestic burglary different from one municipality to another?
The Netherlands have undeniably become safer looking at the traditional forms of crime. Theft, violence and destruction, in particular, are declining considerably. This is not only apparent from the number of police reports. Victim surveys also show this year after year. However, we also know that crime and insecurity are almost always geographically unevenly distributed (article by Bert Berghuis in Secondant: Crime is unevenly distributed across the Netherlands (Dutch)).This raises the question of whether it has become safer everywhere in the Netherlands.
VICTIM RISK ALMOST HALVED
We go back to 1980 (see figure 1). In a first upward crime wave, the risk of victimization in the Netherlands doubled from almost 43 victims per 1,000 inhabitants in 1980 to 78 victims in the peak year 1994. After a very short-lived decrease, crime increased again in a second wave to the peak year of 2002 by approximately 1.200,000 crimes recorded by the police.
Figure 1> Development of the number of crimes recorded by the police (blue histograms) and crime victim survey figures (yellow line) (numbers per 1,000 inhabitants) in the Netherlands (1980-2017)
After 2002, the number of crimes recorded by the police decreased to about 700,000 in 2017. This means that the victim risk decreased by almost half (48 per cent) from 77 in 2002 to 40 in 2017. This reduction in crime could be caused by fewer delinquent heroin addicts, fewer young people with more frequent leisure activities indoors due to the rise of the internet and social media, improved education and upbringing, fewer early school drop-outs and positive developments in the integration of migrant groups.
Scientists agree that, in particular private prevention, combined with more control and supervision, has resulted in significantly less opportunity for crime, a higher chance of being caught and therefore fewer victims in recent decades.
The current burglary risk is almost half the level it was in 1980
In this context, we are looking at the development of domestic burglaries. This type of crime has received high priority from the joint safety partners in recent years due to its seriousness.
DOMESTIC BURGLARIES DECREASED BY 60 PER CENT
Figure 2 shows two trends: the number of thefts from homes as recorded by the police and the home burglary risk, which is the number of burglaries per 1,000 homes. The developments are more or less parallel. 1994 is the peak year for burglaries. In that year, there were 125,000 burglaries in the Netherlands. From that year on, the number decreased (45 per cent) to about 70,000 in 2007. This decrease in domestic burglaries started much earlier than the decrease of all crimes as shown in figure 1.
As mentioned, private prevention has played an important role in this. With the change of the Building regulations in 1999, the government imposed strict requirements for the burglar resistance of both existing and new buildings. Where previously the burglar, for example, could easily ‘pin’ himself into the house with a piece of plastic, he was now more often confronted with at least two stars certified burglary resistant hardware in door and window frames.
Figure 2> Development of the number of theft from a home recorded by the police and the home burglary risk (number of burglaries per 1,000 homes) in the Netherlands (1980 – 2016)
After a brief increase, between 2006 and 2012 the number of burglaries decreased again remarkably to 49,000 in 2017, 60 per cent less than in 1994. The average home burglary risk decreased in that time by more than two thirds, from 20 in 1994 to 6 in 2017. The burglary risk in 2018 was almost half the level it was in 1980, the graph shows. And this decrease continued until 2020 (about 30,000 burglaries).
SAFER BUT NOT EVERYWHERE
Has the number of domestic burglaries in the Netherlands now reached an acceptable level, and can the priorities in this area now be shifted? What about the unequal distribution of crime? For the 388 Dutch municipalities in 2018, we researched the possible relationship between the domestic burglary risk in 2012 and its development in 2012 – 2017.
The risk of burglary can still vary considerably from one municipality to another
The point cloud and the black dotted line in figure 3 show that in the municipalities with a higher risk of domestic burglary in 2012, there is generally a relatively stronger decrease in domestic burglaries in the following years than in the municipalities with a lower risk of a domestic burglary. Also, 4 clusters of municipalities can be distinguished; see the table below the diagram.
Figure 3> Relationship between the domestic burglary risk in 2012 and the development of domestic burglary in 2012-2017 per municipality in the Netherlands
Figure 3 shows:
- The higher the domestic burglary risk in 2012, the higher the decrease in the period 2012-2017. Clusters 1 and 4 together form the high-risk municipalities. In these 112 municipalities (28 per cent of all municipalities), the largest part (63 per cent) of domestic burglaries was concentrated in 2012,
- A large part of the decrease (50 per cent) in the period 2012-2017 is attributable to the 83 high-risk municipalities in cluster 1 (21 per cent of all municipalities),
- In 29 high-risk municipalities (cluster 4), however, the number of domestic burglaries decreased less than average,
- In 15 low-risk municipalities, the domestic burglary risk even increased instead of decreased in 2012-2017 (red dots in the graph).
In short: relatively few municipalities with a high risk of domestic burglary in 2012 accounted for half of the decrease in domestic burglaries in the Netherlands in subsequent years. Such a pattern is not uncommon: a few causes provoke many of the consequences. What does this mean for the current situation?
Although the number of burglaries has decreased remarkably, it is striking that the domestic burglary risk still differs considerably from one municipality to another. The table below shows that in 2017 a large part (65 per cent) of domestic burglaries was again concentrated in a small part (30 per cent) of all Dutch municipalities. It concerns 115 high-risk municipalities. From our underlying data, we know that some of these are different municipalities to those in 2012. For a continued decrease in domestic burglaries in the Netherlands, extra attention for these 115 municipalities may significantly contribute.
Table 1> Number of municipalities with a higher and lower risk of burglary than the national average
CONCLUSION: PROBLEM-ORIENTED APPROACH
The trend can also vary considerably from one municipality to another. A relatively limited number of high-risk municipalities in 2012 (21 per cent of all municipalities) accounted for as much as 50 per cent of the decrease in domestic burglaries in recent years. It seems plausible that in those municipalities, the risk level of burglary has led to more focus and a targeted approach.
A lot of scientific knowledge is available about effective safety and security management
A problem-oriented approach to a domestic burglary in hotspots, in particular, would yield the best results, Jaap de Waard wrote earlier in Secondant. See also the new website and manual on www.ProHIC.nl. Whether this was the case in the relevant municipalities is as yet unknown. Additional research can provide a definite answer. Such research can provide substantial up-to-date knowledge about what works and what does not work in what context when dealing with domestic burglaries in the Netherlands. That is important because crime is decreasing in the Netherlands, but certainly not everywhere. The integrated, problem-oriented approach to domestic burglary still deserves special attention and refinement, especially in today’s high-risk municipalities.